Tuesday, December 4, 2007

I Prefer the GMAC Bowl...But Here's A Proposed Playoff

I've always been Pro-Bowl. (Not as in the watered down NFL All-Star game, but as in the Papajohns.com Bowl). College Football is nothing without the traditions that go with it, so I've generally shrugged off the same, endless BCS debates that happen year after year. I'm just tired of listening to it all, and can't believe people don't have anything better to talk about around the holidays. It's a system with flaws no doubt, but there is still something cool about all the games at traditional sites after New Years', and having those games be the final game, and a crowning achievement to a winning season.

Though I prefer the bowls in the FBS, I've never been anti-playoff. A playoff would certainly lead to an amazing ending to the season. If you missed the Appalachian State-Eastern Washington game last Saturday, you need to broaden your horizons to how good college football is beyond the spoiled rich kids.

I'm just not sure how you walk the fine line of tradition and progress, and work the traditional bowl sites into the equation. I can't imagine a college football season ending without a meaningful Rose Bowl or Cotton Bowl.

This is a playoff system I devised a few years ago. The BCS rankings are still in effect, but are only used to decide what teams make the bracket, and to seed teams into the bracket accordingly. Here is how I arrive at the NCAA Division 1-A Football Championship:

1. The field is set at 18 teams. The lowest four seeded teams will play two "play-in" games, to narrow the field to 16.
2. There are 11 1-A conferences, therefore 11 automatic bids. You win your conference title, you're in. If you play in a league with a conference championship game, you must win that game to secure the automatic bid.
3. The other seven teams included will be the highest ranked teams in the BCS formula that are not conference champions. These are the at-large qualifiers.
4. The teams are then seeded 1-18 based on the BCS Rankings, with #15 playing #18 (Winner playes #2), and #16 plays #17 (Winner playes #1.) The rest of the bracket sets up just like a regional in the NCAA basketball tournament.
5. Seeds are not adjusted to avoid re-matches. With so fewer teams to work with than the 65 in basketball, it is fruitless to adjust seeding to avoid teams from the same league or teams that played during the season from meeting each other early in the tournament.

Now, let's plug the 2007 season into my system and see what shakes out:

1 Ohio State (Big Ten)
2 LSU (SEC)
3 Virginia Tech (ACC)
4 Oklahoma (Big 12)
5 Georgia (At-Large)
6 Missouri (At-Large)
7 USC (Pac-10)
8 Kansas (At-Large)
9 West Virginia (Big East)
10 Hawaii (WAC)
11 Arizona State (At-Large)
12 Florida (At-Large)
13 Illinois (At-Large)
14 Boston College (At-Large)
15 Brigham Young (Mountain West)
16 Central Florida (Conference USA)
17 Central Michigan (Mid-American)
18 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)

And the bracket...

1 Ohio State (11-1)
16 Central Florida (10-3) vs. 17 Central Michigan (8-5)

8 Kansas (11-1)
9 West Virginia (10-2)

5 Georgia (10-2)
12 Florida (9-3)

4 Oklahoma (11-2)
13 Illinois (9-3)

6 Missouri (11-2)
11 Arizona State (10-2)

3 Virginia Tech (11-2)
14 Boston College (10-3)

7 USC (10-2)
10 Hawaii (12-0)

2 LSU (11-2)
15 Brigham Young (10-2) vs. 18 Florida Atlantic (7-5)

FAQ:

Why isn't there a selection committee like in basketball?

Using the BCS rankings to decide at-large bids and seed, the voters in the Harris Poll and the AP Poll are the de-facto selection committee.

Where are the games played?

I've generated about 1,000 different systems for neutral fields in the later rounds, and it makes my head want to explode. I'm thinking at least the first round games are on the campus sites of the higher seed. If you have a suggestion on this, let me know.

Aren't there too many games?

Yes. Keep in mind this is just a prototype. If a system with this many teams was ever implicated, I'd bet the season would have to get cut to 10 or 11 games instead of 12 or 13, ala the FCS. However, with as profitable as regular season games are in the big time division, I think an 8 to 12 team playoff is more likely if it ever happens (which it probably won't) to ensure teams can still at least play 11 regular season games. Bear in mind though, that the FCS champion will play a 14 or 15 game season (it's a 16-team playoff.)

Why 18 teams?

When I originally developed this bracket, the Mountain West hadn't split from the WAC yet, and the Sun Belt didn't exist for football. The orginal bracket several years ago was 16 teams to echo Division 1-AA, but when the MWC and Sun Belt came to fruition I made the same decision NCAA basketball made when the Mountain West gained an automatic bid. Instead of sacrificing an at-large bid, I kept the number at seven and increased the field by the number of new conferences, in this case two, and added the play-in games to balance things out. That's why the NCAA basketball tourney has 65 teams, they added the MWC automatic qualifier without taking out an at-large spot. It's been effective, as you have very average Central Michigan (8-5) and Florida Atlantic (7-5) winning leagues that had down years and weren't very strong. This prevents such pretenders from automatically getting a big money game against a huge opponent with a lot of revenue and TV exposure without earning it.

By all means this isn't perfect, but it's plausible. And yes I realize I have Boston College playing Virginia Tech for a third time, but the rules as explained above were set up ahead of time. If you think you can improve upon it, be sure to let me know. As a bowl fan I'm not married to it, but I can't deny how great it would be to see something like this play out.

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